1) Market Review
This week, manganese prices climbed steadily from RMB 15,000 and stayed stable temporarily at RMB 15,500/mt due to increasing purchasing volumes from downstream consumers as well as due to support of tight supply of goods and high costs at upstream producers.
Supply
Operating rates at manganese producers were around 69%, and supply of manganese declined slightly; prices of ore powder remained at high levels, and prices of sulphuric acid and selenium dioxide kept on rising. Offers of manganese climbed day by day due to higher costs and relatively tight supply.
Demand
This week, purchasing volumes from stainless steels and alloy industries gradually began to grow, but they made purchase cautiously due to high price levels; traders mainly removed goods when prices were at high levels and only make purchases when they received orders from clients.
2) Weekly Forecast
Supply
Tight supply of electric power will not change in the short term, and operating rates at manganese producers may remain at 69% or decline slightly. Supply of manganese may decline slightly; meanwhile, prices of raw materials like ore powder and sulphuric acid still remain at high levels. Offers of manganese will be higher due to support of high costs and reduced supply.
Demand
Recently, stainless steel mills began to make purchase for the concern that prices will continue to grow in the future, but they will only make purchase in a small amount to keep daily production since prices are at high levels and market trend is not clear; alloy producers are expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude due to high purchasing costs at present although their purchasing demand is grow due to steady price increases of imported manganese ore; middlemen have inventories on hand and they are expected to move goods when prices reach high levels next week, and they will not make purchase in a large amount.
Analysis
Prices will still get strong support due to high costs (costs are above RMB 14,500/mt for 3/4 manganese producers) and tight supply of goods, but rising room for manganese prices is limited due to reduced purchasing need from downstream purchasers and expanding wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that manganese prices will move around RMB 15,500/mt after a temporarily climb next week.
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